30% + 30% ≠ 60% in politics.
With much hype around all the opposition political parties coming together in India against one party, Media and political analysts are creating a buzz that Modi/BJP/NDA will loose the battle because all the other parties coming together constitute 65% of vote share.
I am no expert in politics neither in political science but yes you can consider me an expert on India and Indian Thought Process. I’ve been doing Market research since 14 years and “reading the mind of the subject” is one of my special powers. So here is what i have to tell India that in Indian Politics 30% + 30% ≠ 60%.
I have extensively traveled across India Especially Uttar Pradesh. Agra, Lucknow, Ayodhya, Allahabad, Gorakhpur, Banaras and many more cities have had my presence at some point or the other. My roots lie in Rajasthan and I have seen the way people live and think in the northern “Hindi Belt” as media fondly calls it. Here is my take on the current status of Mahagathbandhan and the threat to Modi/NDA.
- Caste politics have created a much bigger rift in India than people can imagine.
- People have become so apprehensive towards other castes that they hate others more than they love themselves.(only in relation to caste as a parameter in their thought process. There is no “intolerance” really)
- For years they were fighting with each other, some lost dear ones and some other their businesses. No one flourished apart from politicians. The overall outcome was a total economic disaster in the states like UP and Bihar.
- The governments in these states made sure that ONLY their caste/vote banks flourish and all others bear the oppression.
- Today’s Yadavs do not love Yadavs as much as they hate Dalits. And today’s Dalits do not love Dalits as much as they hate Yadavs.
- Irrespective of an enemy suddenly becoming “Political BHUA” or Aunt and enemy’s son becoming a “Political Nephew” of each other. People will not accept the company of each other or vote for each other.
- If you have 30% vote bank, there are high chances 15% will reject their leaders call to support their “much publicized” enemy on both sides and they will end up with the similar amount of votes.
- I predict that this lost votebank will vote for Modi/NDA and on many many seats, NDA will have more than 50% of Votes registered to it. Which means that all other contestants combined will also be unable to beat NDA candidates.
If my analysis is right, NDA will procure at least 70% seats in LokSabha Elections 2019 as compared to 90% in elections 2014. 20% loss can be attributed to some anti-incumbency and MahagathBandhan top leaders benefitting from alliance but elsewhere it will be MODI/NDA.
I’ll keep this blog updated once the results are out to check if my analysis is right or wrong. I will also post my personal exit poll results on 19th May 2019 after all the voting is over.